Why you want to believe the polls, and 5 reasons why you can’t believe the polls.
Meteorologists get it wrong often and they have radars and other tools. Why do we think we can fare better with more complicated predictions?
The past is irrelevant and the stories about the future are creations of the mind, and best guesses. The only truth is this: nobody knows what’s going to happen, because nobody’s an expert on the future.