3 Reasons Why You “Didn’t See It Coming”

If you’re looking for something a little more comforting for today, read Navigating the Morning After, from post-Election Day 2016. Otherwise, carry on.

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Business or product successes and failures. Breakups. Divorce. Major market shifts. Election results.

Sometimes things happen — for better or for worse — that you “didn’t see coming.”

In hindsight, everyone is a great analyst. But Monday morning quarterbacking isn’t as useful as having a clear eye on something before it happens.

When we look at something with the benefit of knowing how it turned out, it’s often easy to see the signs.

They were always there; you just missed them.

Here are 3 reasons why you didn’t see it coming.

(1) You weren’t looking at the right data.

A former manager at my real estate brokerage used to advocate for collecting data because “information is power.” This was flawed on two levels.

First, he was conflating data with information. Information, by definition, informs. It teaches us something. Not all data is information; some of it is just noise.

Second, information itself isn’t power; it has the potential to empower those who know how to use it. Too much information can lead to paralysis.

In my real estate business, I often find that clients don’t know what the relevant data points are. Part of my job is to show them what’s relevant and where to look.

Other times, people choose data points that confirm what they want to believe — like when a homeowner focuses on recent sales that they believe increase the value of their home but ignores other, more relevant comparables.

Selection bias comes into play when you filter for information that fits your expectations, ignoring or missing key indicators that could alter the whole picture. Whether you missed critical signs or focused on data that reinforced your assumptions, the result is a skewed view of what’s actually happening.

(2) You didn’t interpret the data correctly.

Having the right information isn’t enough; it’s how you interpret and synthesize it that counts. Even with all the facts in front of you, the insight needed might still be missing.

Correct interpretation is what transforms raw data into actionable insight. Without proper interpretation, even the most relevant data won’t yield an accurate understanding of what’s really going on.

It might be as simple as not having the requisite skills to interpret the data — to turn the data into information that can empower.

Confirmation bias often leads people to dismiss data points that conflicts with their narrative or assumptions.

This misinterpretation can also stem from not questioning assumptions or from lacking the experience needed to read the data accurately.

Interpretation is about drawing meaning from the data, understanding what it implies, and recognizing the patterns or signals it’s sending. This requires skill, experience, and a willingness to question assumptions.

(3) You were blinded by your bias.

Even if you were looking at all the correct and relevant data points and knew how to interpret the data correctly, you might miss crucial signs if you were blinded by your biases or attached to a particular outcome.

Cognitive or emotional bias can keep us from seeing what’s right in front of us.

People often see what they want to see, even in the face of contradictory evidence. This is especially relevant when stakes are high or when we’re personally attached to an outcome.

Our own hopes and fears can filter out clear signs or even distort our judgment. Often, the more invested we are, the harder it is to see the data objectively — making it easy to be blindsided when reality finally sets in.

One of the hardest parts of my job as a real estate broker is to “rip off the band-aid” on a client’s flawed analysis of their home’s value. I serve a similar function in my coaching practice, even when I’m working with clients where we aren’t analyzing numerical metrics.

It’s human nature to see life through a lens colored by our attachments to particular outcomes or beliefs. This is why we need objective outsiders such as coaches and consultants to help us analyze situations.

Read: 5 Reasons Why You Need a Coach to Help You Accomplish Big (and Small) Goals

How to Effectively Analyze a Situation

Comprehensive and coherent analysis of any situation requires three distinct elements:

• choosing the correct and relevant data;
• interpreting the data accurately;
• removing biases or attachments to particular outcomes that would influence your analysis.

When we are too close to a situation or have an emotional or personal investment in the outcome, it’s wise to call on neutral third parties — coaches, consultants, real estate agents, or other industry experts — to either analyze the situation for us or to challenge and check our assumptions.