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You are here: Home / Astrology / Causation vs Correlation – and Why It Matters

Causation vs Correlation – and Why It Matters

July 14, 2024 | Renée Fishman

Causation is complicated.

Whether it’s in your body, your business, your relationships, or world events, events have multiple causes.

Success and failure both have numerous inputs.

For example, if your health is good, it’s because you’re doing a lot of things well: diet, exercise, sleep, stress management, and so on. If your health is not good, it’s usually a result of a failure in multiple factors.

When evaluating pain in the physical body, I remind myself often that “the source is not the cause.” The cause of your low back pain is most likely originating in your feet, your hips, or how you’re positioning your shoulders. (That’s your cue to lift your head up and straighten up as you read this).

It’s helpful to keep this in mind when reading about astrology and planetary transits.

I saw a quote attributed to Newton, (but I haven’t been able to independently verify):

“Clocks tell you what time it is; they don’t create time.”

The same can be said for planetary alignments.

One of the biggest misconceptions about astrology — and the reason people are skeptical of it — is the idea that astrologers are attributing events on earth to planetary alignments or personality types.

It’s a common conflation that arises in memes, in the expression of ideas such as:

  • I’m like X because I’m a Taurus (or insert your Sun sign).
  • I’m late because Mercury is retrograde.
  • Y happened because of the full moon.

This type of conflation rightly earns astrology its skeptics.

I view astrology, among other things, as the study of patterns.

The guiding principle is as above, so below. In this framework, the planetary alignments are reflecting events on earth.

The patterns speak to correlations: what tends to happen when the planets meet in certain configurations.

Astrologers have been charting these patterns for thousands of years.

Granted, patterns from the past don’t necessarily repeat into the future. Just like it may not snow in the winter in the Northeast.

But if a certain pattern has historically shown up in certain ways, it’s useful to pay attention and prepare accordingly.

Considering astrology through the framework of correlation, as opposed to causation, preserves our free will and our agency. We are not resigned to the fate dictated by planets.

For me, it’s like a weather forecast.

If I know that a certain pattern of conditions correlates to a storm, I’m going to pack an umbrella and prepare provisions.

The worst thing that can happen in that case is that what I expect doesn’t materialize. It’s better than being caught by surprise.

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